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Carl Emil Overbeck vs Fausto Tabacco — Prediction

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · qualification - 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Carl Emil Overbeck

Denmark

64.04%

Fausto Tabacco

Italy

35.96%

Average Odds

1.51  /  2.40

Market probability

61.38%  /  38.62%

Why This Prediction?

Carl Emil Overbeck is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1547 vs 1460), a higher Elo rating (1538 vs 1467) and better recent form (8 wins in his last 15 matches vs 7).

Player Comparison

1537.7 Elo 1467.1
1546.9 Elo (surface) 1459.8
20 Wins (Challenger) 12
20 Wins (surface) 1
8 Last 15 form 7
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.064 Dominance ratio 0.913
290 Rank 528
25.1 Age 24.4
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carl Emil Overbeck

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Fausto Tabacco

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-06-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carl Emil Overbeck Fausto Tabacco

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

64.2%
65.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%
63.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%
45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.3%
31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%
54.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.44
0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21
0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carl Emil Overbeck Fausto Tabacco

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%
57.5%

Break Points Converted %

48.5%
40.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carl Emil Overbeck and Fausto Tabacco have never played each other.

Carl Emil Overbeck — Last 10

L L W L L L W W L W

Fausto Tabacco — Last 10

L W W L W L W L L W