ATP tennis predict — Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Nicolas Mejia

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · 1. round 23:30

Predicted probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

53.76%

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

46.24%

Average Odds

1.95 / 1.74

Market probability

47.15% / 52.85%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1772.7 Elo 1689.9

1595.6 Elo (surface) 1584.9

195 Wins (Challenger) 160

11 Wins (surface) 88

13 Last 15 form 9

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.301 Dominance ratio 1.042

76 Rank 122

27.2 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Nicolas Mejia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Nicolas Mejia

1st Serve In %

60.6%

57.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.7%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

45.3%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Nicolas Mejia

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

62.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

36.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.2%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Camilo Ugo Carabelli 2 – 0 Nicolas Mejia

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-20

1. round

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #76

Nicolas Mejia #122

7-5 6-4

2 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 4

57 Service Points 72

43 First Serve In 37

34 First Serve Won 24

11 Second Serve Won 23

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.7

Clay Lima CH · 2022-08-08

R32

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #121

Nicolas Mejia #290

6-2 6-3

2 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 1

52 Service Points 55

35 First Serve In 38

26 First Serve Won 18

7 Second Serve Won 5

4 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Lima 1 CH · 2021-09-27

R32

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #245

Nicolas Mejia #289

6-3 6-0

2 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

44 Service Points 54

24 First Serve In 33

19 First Serve Won 15

13 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Nicolas Mejia — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Last 10

Nicolas Mejia — Last 10