ATP tennis predict — Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Miomir Kecmanovic

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

31.23%

Miomir Kecmanovic

Serbia

68.77%

Average Odds

3.24 / 1.34

Market probability

29.26% / 70.74%

Why This Prediction?

Miomir Kecmanovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1783 vs 1609), more wins on hard courts (136 vs 10) and a stronger serve (65.1% vs 59.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1784.8 Elo 1749.1

1608.6 Elo (surface) 1783.4

58 Wins 210

10 Wins (surface) 136

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.967 Dominance ratio 1.001

76 Rank 62

27.2 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Miomir Kecmanovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–5L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Miomir Kecmanovic

1st Serve In %

60.6%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.7%

74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

45.3%

38.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

57.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Miomir Kecmanovic

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.2%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

49.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0 – 1 Miomir Kecmanovic

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-13

1. round

Miomir Kecmanovic #62

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #76

6-3 6-3

5 Aces 5

6 Double Faults 3

64 Service Points 60

33 First Serve In 29

20 First Serve Won 22

13 Second Serve Won 18

8 Break Points Saved 7

12 Break Points Faced 8

17 Winners 15

41 Unforced Errors 27

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Clay Valencia CH · 2026-05-12

QF

Miomir Kecmanovic #70

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #61

6-1 6-1

1 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

57 Service Points 36

33 First Serve In 24

23 First Serve Won 9

13 Second Serve Won 1

6 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Miomir Kecmanovic — Prediction