ATP tennis predict — Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jan Lennard Struff

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

49.99%

Jan Lennard Struff

Germany

50.01%

Average Odds

2.64 / 1.49

Market probability

36.08% / 63.92%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1762.1 Elo 1712.8

1585.4 Elo (surface) 1654.5

58 Wins 329

10 Wins (surface) 175

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.996 Dominance ratio 1.064

77 Rank 44

27.2 Age 36.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jan Lennard Struff

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Jan Lennard Struff

1st Serve In %

60.6%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.7%

76.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

45.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.79

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

58.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

45.3%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Jan Lennard Struff

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

56.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.2%

56.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0 – 0 Jan Lennard Struff

Hard US Open · 2026-09-01

1. round

Jan Lennard Struff #44

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #77

6-4 6-3 6-3

7 Aces 15

13 Double Faults 3

92 Service Points 77

40 First Serve In 34

31 First Serve Won 30

21 Second Serve Won 26

2 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 3

21 Winners 43

26 Unforced Errors 22

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jan Lennard Struff — Prediction