ATP tennis predict — Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia Simakin

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

26.11%

Ilia Simakin

Russia

73.89%

Average Odds

2.80 / 1.42

Market probability

33.65% / 66.35%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1903 vs 1606), a higher Elo rating (1873 vs 1815) and more aces per game (0.27 vs 0.27).

Player Comparison

1814.9 Elo 1872.7

1605.6 Elo (surface) 1903.1

58 Wins 2

10 Wins (surface) 2

5 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.028 Dominance ratio 0.952

77 Rank 154

27.3 Age 23.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 12W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–1L · 90.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Ilia Simakin

1st Serve In %

58.1%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.3%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

42.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

56.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

64.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

45.3%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Ilia Simakin

Break Points Saved %

55.3%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

14.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.2%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Ilia Simakin have never played each other.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia Simakin — Prediction