ATP tennis predict — Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger Aliassime

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

23.53%

Felix Auger Aliassime

Canada

76.47%

Average Odds

12.67 / 1.03

Market probability

7.52% / 92.48%

Why This Prediction?

Felix Auger Aliassime is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1981 vs 1645), a higher Elo rating (2053 vs 1828) and more aces per game (0.39 vs 0.25).

Player Comparison

1827.6 Elo 2053.1

1645.3 Elo (surface) 1981.5

59 Wins 14

11 Wins (surface) 3

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.028 Dominance ratio 1.082

77 Rank 6

27.3 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Felix Auger Aliassime

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Felix Auger Aliassime

1st Serve In %

55.7%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

77.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.6%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.1%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

45.3%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Felix Auger Aliassime

Break Points Saved %

56.6%

56.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

35.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.2%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

52.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0 – 1 Felix Auger Aliassime

Clay Roland Garros · 2022-05-23

R64

Felix Auger Aliassime #9

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #155

6-0 6-3 6-4

8 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 3

97 Service Points 82

59 First Serve In 63

44 First Serve Won 32

22 Second Serve Won 11

5 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger Aliassime — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Last 10

Felix Auger Aliassime — Last 10