ATP tennis predict — Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Cameron Norrie

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

39.18%

Cameron Norrie

Great Britain

60.82%

Average Odds

4.01 / 1.24

Market probability

23.62% / 76.38%

Why This Prediction?

Cameron Norrie is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1768 vs 1623), more wins on hard courts (189 vs 10) and a stronger serve (66.1% vs 59.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1797.3 Elo 1750.8

1623.5 Elo (surface) 1767.8

58 Wins 300

10 Wins (surface) 189

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.937 Dominance ratio 1.210

75 Rank 39

27.1 Age 31.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Cameron Norrie

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Cameron Norrie

1st Serve In %

60.6%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.7%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

68.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

49.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

45.3%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

55.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Cameron Norrie

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

47.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.2%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0 – 0 Cameron Norrie

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Cameron Norrie #37

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #76

7-6 6-4

5 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 3

78 Service Points 72

43 First Serve In 42

31 First Serve Won 29

14 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 0

4 Break Points Faced 2

22 Winners 26

31 Unforced Errors 26

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Cameron Norrie — Prediction