ATP tennis predict — Cameron Norrie vs Denis Shapovalov

ATP Hard Los Cabos · SF

Predicted probability

Cameron Norrie

Great Britain

62.23%

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

37.77%

Average Odds

1.60 / 2.30

Market probability

58.97% / 41.03%

Why This Prediction?

Cameron Norrie is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1780 vs 1750), a stronger return game (40.1% vs 35.6% of return points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.14 vs 0.30).

Player Comparison

1760.8 Elo 1745.9

1780.0 Elo (surface) 1749.6

300 Wins 258

189 Wins (surface) 194

8 Last 15 form 6

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.188 Dominance ratio 0.843

39 Rank 68

30.9 Age 27.3

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Cameron Norrie

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Cameron Norrie Denis Shapovalov

1st Serve In %

58.0%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.1%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.1%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%

58.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.3%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Cameron Norrie Denis Shapovalov

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

59.8%

Break Points Converted %

47.6%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Cameron Norrie 2 – 0 Denis Shapovalov

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-08-01

SF

Denis Shapovalov #68

Cameron Norrie #39

6-3 5-7 6-4

1 Aces 9

6 Double Faults 3

93 Service Points 100

46 First Serve In 66

31 First Serve Won 44

27 Second Serve Won 26

5 Break Points Saved 9

8 Break Points Faced 11

15 Winners 28

54 Unforced Errors 62

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Hard San Diego · 2021-09-27

QF

Cameron Norrie #28

Denis Shapovalov #13

6-3 6-1

1 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 5

54 Service Points 45

43 First Serve In 25

33 First Serve Won 16

4 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Queen's Club · 2021-06-14

SF

Cameron Norrie #41

Denis Shapovalov #14

7-5 6-3

1 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 5

65 Service Points 66

42 First Serve In 39

32 First Serve Won 28

13 Second Serve Won 10

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 6