ATP tennis predict — Cameron Norrie vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Cameron Norrie

Great Britain

61.80%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

38.20%

Average Odds

1.20 / 4.49

Market probability

78.91% / 21.09%

Why This Prediction?

Cameron Norrie is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1768 vs 1623), more wins on hard courts (189 vs 10) and a stronger serve (66.1% vs 59.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1750.8 Elo 1797.3

1767.8 Elo (surface) 1623.5

300 Wins 58

189 Wins (surface) 10

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.210 Dominance ratio 0.937

37 Rank 76

31.0 Age 27.1

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Cameron Norrie

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Cameron Norrie Camilo Ugo Carabelli

1st Serve In %

58.0%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.1%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.1%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.3%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Cameron Norrie Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.6%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

52.2%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Cameron Norrie 0 – 0 Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Cameron Norrie #37

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #76

7-6 6-4

5 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 3

78 Service Points 72

43 First Serve In 42

31 First Serve Won 29

14 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 0

4 Break Points Faced 2

22 Winners 26

31 Unforced Errors 26

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Cameron Norrie vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Prediction