ATP tennis predict — Cameron Norrie vs Bernard Tomic

ATP Hard Los Cabos · QF

Predicted probability

Cameron Norrie

Great Britain

67.95%

Bernard Tomic

Australia

32.05%

Average Odds

1.36 / 3.10

Market probability

69.51% / 30.49%

Why This Prediction?

Cameron Norrie is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1772 vs 1663), a higher Elo rating (1753 vs 1692) and a stronger return game (42.2% vs 35.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1752.9 Elo 1691.9

1772.2 Elo (surface) 1663.3

299 Wins 254

188 Wins (surface) 167

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.016 Dominance ratio 0.729

39 Rank 171

30.9 Age 33.8

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Cameron Norrie

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Cameron Norrie Bernard Tomic

1st Serve In %

58.0%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

67.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

46.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.1%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.1%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.3%

33.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.83

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Cameron Norrie Bernard Tomic

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

47.6%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

70.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Cameron Norrie 0 – 0 Bernard Tomic

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-31

QF

Cameron Norrie #39

Bernard Tomic #171

6-1 6-0

1 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 5

30 Service Points 57

18 First Serve In 32

16 First Serve Won 15

8 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 9

0 Break Points Faced 15

14 Winners 11

11 Unforced Errors 40

1.4 Average Odds 3.1

Cameron Norrie vs Bernard Tomic — Prediction