ATP tennis predict — Cameron Norrie vs Alex De Minaur

ATP Hard Montreal · 3. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Cameron Norrie

Great Britain

29.93%

Alex De Minaur

Australia

70.07%

Average Odds

2.68 / 1.46

Market probability

35.27% / 64.73%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1900 vs 1772), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1867 vs 1781) and a stronger serve (69.6% vs 61.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1771.8 Elo 1900.2

1780.5 Elo (surface) 1867.4

302 Wins 351

191 Wins (surface) 255

8 Last 15 form 11

3 Head-to-head wins 3

1.182 Dominance ratio 1.217

37 Rank 7

31.0 Age 27.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Cameron Norrie

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Cameron Norrie Alex De Minaur

1st Serve In %

58.0%

55.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.1%

66.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.1%

74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%

58.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.3%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Cameron Norrie Alex De Minaur

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

47.6%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

71.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Cameron Norrie 3 – 3 Alex De Minaur

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-06

3. round

Cameron Norrie #37

Alex De Minaur #7

5-7 7-6 6-1

7 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 5

111 Service Points 102

59 First Serve In 53

41 First Serve Won 36

22 Second Serve Won 18

8 Break Points Saved 3

13 Break Points Faced 10

39 Winners 32

41 Unforced Errors 49

2.7 Average Odds 1.5

Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2026-04-05

R32

Alex De Minaur #6

Cameron Norrie #24

7-6(5) 2-6 6-2

4 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 1

93 Service Points 92

40 First Serve In 55

29 First Serve Won 39

23 Second Serve Won 15

4 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2026-03-04

R32

Cameron Norrie #29

Alex De Minaur #6

6-4 6-4

2 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 4

70 Service Points 57

41 First Serve In 35

31 First Serve Won 23

15 Second Serve Won 10

6 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard United Cup · 2024-01-01

RR

Cameron Norrie #18

Alex De Minaur #12

6-4 2-6 7-6(2)

7 Aces 8

1 Double Faults 3

89 Service Points 81

57 First Serve In 45

51 First Serve Won 35

12 Second Serve Won 23

1 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Canada Masters · 2023-08-07

R64

Alex De Minaur #18

Cameron Norrie #13

7-5 6-4

3 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 6

70 Service Points 68

42 First Serve In 44

31 First Serve Won 31

16 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard United Cup · 2023-01-02

RR

Cameron Norrie #14

Alex De Minaur #24

6-3 6-3

4 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 1

56 Service Points 55

30 First Serve In 28

26 First Serve Won 19

14 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Barcelona · 2022-04-18

QF

Alex De Minaur #25

Cameron Norrie #10

6-3 5-7 6-1

3 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 2

82 Service Points 103

56 First Serve In 72

33 First Serve Won 43

16 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 13

7 Break Points Faced 20

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Cameron Norrie vs Alex De Minaur — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Cameron Norrie — Last 10

Alex De Minaur — Last 10