ATP tennis predict — Bu Yunchaokete vs Rio Noguchi

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Bu Yunchaokete

China

72.21%

Rio Noguchi

Japan

27.79%

Average Odds

1.35 / 3.08

Market probability

69.53% / 30.47%

Why This Prediction?

Bu Yunchaokete is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1781 vs 1594), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1698 vs 1599) and a stronger serve (68.9% vs 60.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1780.8 Elo 1594.0

1697.8 Elo (surface) 1598.6

35 Wins 7

30 Wins (surface) 6

5 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.991 Dominance ratio 0.996

124 Rank 218

24.6 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bu Yunchaokete

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bu Yunchaokete Rio Noguchi

1st Serve In %

61.3%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

79.0%

61.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.6%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.69

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

60.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.2%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.9%

64.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bu Yunchaokete Rio Noguchi

Break Points Saved %

40.5%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

38.6%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

18.6%

45.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bu Yunchaokete 0 – 1 Rio Noguchi

Hard US Open · 2026-08-25

qualification - 1. round

Bu Yunchaokete #124

Rio Noguchi #218

4-6 6-4 6-2

9 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 2

79 Service Points 107

46 First Serve In 64

37 First Serve Won 36

13 Second Serve Won 25

0 Break Points Saved 7

3 Break Points Faced 12

44 Winners 28

28 Unforced Errors 21

1.4 Average Odds 3.1

Hard Busan CH · 2024-04-08

R32

Rio Noguchi #343

Bu Yunchaokete #181

7-5 7-5

0 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 5

80 Service Points 82

52 First Serve In 47

32 First Serve Won 31

17 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Bu Yunchaokete vs Rio Noguchi — Prediction