ATP tennis predict — Bu Yunchaokete vs Francesco Maestrelli

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 01:45

Predicted probability

Bu Yunchaokete

China

76.19%

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

23.81%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.69

Market probability

74.40% / 25.60%

Why This Prediction?

Bu Yunchaokete is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1814 vs 1549), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1726 vs 1512) and a stronger serve (68.7% vs 62.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1814.1 Elo 1548.8

1726.4 Elo (surface) 1511.6

34 Wins 12

29 Wins (surface) 8

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.000 Dominance ratio 0.852

118 Rank 161

24.6 Age 23.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bu Yunchaokete

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bu Yunchaokete Francesco Maestrelli

1st Serve In %

61.3%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

79.0%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.6%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.69

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

55.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

76.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.2%

56.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

36.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.9%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bu Yunchaokete Francesco Maestrelli

Break Points Saved %

40.5%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

38.6%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

18.6%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bu Yunchaokete 0 – 0 Francesco Maestrelli

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-12

qualification - 1. round

Bu Yunchaokete #118

Francesco Maestrelli #161

7-6 6-4

6 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 3

61 Service Points 72

40 First Serve In 39

32 First Serve Won 32

10 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 2

22 Winners 10

32 Unforced Errors 24

1.2 Average Odds 3.7

Bu Yunchaokete vs Francesco Maestrelli — Prediction