ATP tennis predict — Bu Yunchaokete vs Colton Smith

Challenger Hard Lincoln challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Bu Yunchaokete

China

63.94%

Colton Smith

USA

36.06%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.36

Market probability

60.36% / 39.64%

Why This Prediction?

Bu Yunchaokete is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1733 vs 1633), a higher Elo rating (1822 vs 1774) and a stronger serve (68.7% vs 61.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1822.4 Elo 1773.5

1733.1 Elo (surface) 1632.6

103 Wins (Challenger) 48

79 Wins (surface) 37

14 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.808 Dominance ratio 1.090

109 Rank 181

24.5 Age 23.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bu Yunchaokete

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Colton Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bu Yunchaokete Colton Smith

1st Serve In %

61.3%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

79.0%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.6%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.69

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.2%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

34.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.9%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bu Yunchaokete Colton Smith

Break Points Saved %

40.5%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

38.6%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

18.6%

42.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bu Yunchaokete 0 – 0 Colton Smith

Hard Lincoln challenger · 2026-07-18

QF

Bu Yunchaokete #109

Colton Smith #181

6-7 6-3 6-4

9 Aces 4

6 Double Faults 5

96 Service Points 124

56 First Serve In 70

42 First Serve Won 47

19 Second Serve Won 28

3 Break Points Saved 14

7 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Bu Yunchaokete vs Colton Smith — Prediction