ATP tennis predict — Bryce Nakashima vs Mees Rottgering

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Bryce Nakashima

USA

21.52%

Mees Rottgering

Netherlands

78.48%

Average Odds

2.00 / 1.74

Market probability

46.52% / 53.48%

Why This Prediction?

Mees Rottgering is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1582 vs 1450), a higher Elo rating (1560 vs 1442) and more career match wins (7 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1442.2 Elo 1559.8

1449.5 Elo (surface) 1582.2

1 Wins (Challenger) 7

1 Wins (surface) 4

1 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.933 Dominance ratio 1.001

882 Rank 411

22.4 Age 19.1

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bryce Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Mees Rottgering

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bryce Nakashima Mees Rottgering

1st Serve In %

—

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.5%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bryce Nakashima Mees Rottgering

Break Points Saved %

—

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

—

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

48.5%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

32.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bryce Nakashima 0 – 0 Mees Rottgering

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-02

qualification - 1. round

Mees Rottgering #411

Bryce Nakashima #882

6-1 6-3

3 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 3

56 Service Points 52

29 First Serve In 31

19 First Serve Won 24

8 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 1

9 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2

Bryce Nakashima vs Mees Rottgering — Prediction