ATP tennis predict — Bryce Nakashima vs Keegan Smith

Challenger Hard Columbus 3 challenger · R16 17:00

Predicted probability

Bryce Nakashima

USA

44.53%

Keegan Smith

USA

55.47%

Average Odds

1.96 / 1.75

Market probability

47.17% / 52.83%

Why This Prediction?

Keegan Smith is the favorite because he has more wins on hard courts (97 vs 6), more career match wins (107 vs 6) and a higher Elo rating (1647 vs 1633).

Player Comparison

1632.7 Elo 1646.5

1616.6 Elo (surface) 1614.2

6 Wins (Challenger) 107

6 Wins (surface) 97

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.063 Dominance ratio 0.730

599 Rank 199

22.6 Age 28.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bryce Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bryce Nakashima Keegan Smith

1st Serve In %

—

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

75.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

61.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

64.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

70.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.6%

18.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.5%

38.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bryce Nakashima Keegan Smith

Break Points Saved %

—

68.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

61.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.3%

28.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bryce Nakashima and Keegan Smith have never played each other.

Bryce Nakashima vs Keegan Smith — Prediction