ATP tennis predict — Bryce Nakashima vs Andre Ilagan

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Bryce Nakashima

USA

20.59%

Andre Ilagan

USA

79.41%

Average Odds

2.15 / 1.59

Market probability

42.51% / 57.49%

Why This Prediction?

Andre Ilagan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1785 vs 1503), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1757 vs 1499) and more wins on hard courts (80 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1503.2 Elo 1784.6

1498.6 Elo (surface) 1756.7

3 Wins (Challenger) 83

3 Wins (surface) 80

3 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.063 Dominance ratio 1.075

711 Rank 181

22.6 Age 25.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bryce Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Andre Ilagan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–8L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bryce Nakashima Andre Ilagan

1st Serve In %

—

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

52.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

41.8%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.5%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

56.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

34.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bryce Nakashima Andre Ilagan

Break Points Saved %

—

61.8%

Break Points Converted %

—

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

53.5%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

34.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bryce Nakashima 0 – 0 Andre Ilagan

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Bryce Nakashima #711

Andre Ilagan #181

7-5 6-7 7-6

16 Aces 15

6 Double Faults 5

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

57 First Serve Won 60

23 Second Serve Won 22

4 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.6

Bryce Nakashima vs Andre Ilagan — Prediction