ATP tennis predict — Bruno Fernandez vs Lautaro Midon

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · R16 16:30

Predicted probability

Bruno Fernandez

Brazil

23.65%

Lautaro Midon

Argentina

76.35%

Average Odds

5.50 / 1.11

Market probability

16.79% / 83.21%

Why This Prediction?

Lautaro Midon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1749 vs 1422), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1764 vs 1430) and more wins on clay courts (67 vs 15).

Player Comparison

1422.4 Elo 1748.7

1430.0 Elo (surface) 1764.5

15 Wins (Challenger) 76

15 Wins (surface) 67

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.166 Dominance ratio 0.938

597 Rank 200

22.2 Age 22.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bruno Fernandez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Lautaro Midon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bruno Fernandez Lautaro Midon

1st Serve In %

—

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.1%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

64.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.7%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.6%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bruno Fernandez Lautaro Midon

Break Points Saved %

—

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.9%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

54.8%

35.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bruno Fernandez 0 – 1 Lautaro Midon

Clay Curitiba challenger · 2026-09-30

R16

Lautaro Midon #200

Bruno Fernandez #597

6-2 7-5

2 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

24 First Serve Won 20

10 Second Serve Won 21

2 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.5

Clay Sao Leopoldo CH · 2026-03-30

R32

Lautaro Midon #217

Bruno Fernandez #653

6-3 3-6 6-4

3 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 3

84 Service Points 101

62 First Serve In 69

37 First Serve Won 43

10 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Bruno Fernandez vs Lautaro Midon — Prediction