ATP tennis predict — Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Brandon Nakashima

USA

76.36%

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

23.64%

Average Odds

1.14 / 5.75

Market probability

83.45% / 16.55%

Why This Prediction?

Brandon Nakashima is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1853 vs 1608), a higher Elo rating (1877 vs 1784) and more wins on hard courts (74 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1876.6 Elo 1784.0

1852.9 Elo (surface) 1607.6

182 Wins 148

125 Wins (surface) 41

12 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.019 Dominance ratio 0.772

17 Rank 51

25.1 Age 25.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Sebastian Baez

1st Serve In %

59.0%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%

59.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

57.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Sebastian Baez

Break Points Saved %

73.2%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima 1 – 0 Sebastian Baez

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Brandon Nakashima #17

Sebastian Baez #51

6-2 6-1 6-0

12 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 4

64 Service Points 62

43 First Serve In 33

37 First Serve Won 14

11 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 11

34 Winners 9

17 Unforced Errors 20

1.1 Average Odds 5.8

Grass Wimbledon · 2024-07-01

R128

Brandon Nakashima #65

Sebastian Baez #18

6-2 6-3 6-4

14 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 2

80 Service Points 87

56 First Serve In 64

42 First Serve Won 38

16 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 7

2 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez — Prediction