ATP tennis predict — Brandon Nakashima vs Rafael Jodar

ATP Hard Montreal · SF 00:10

Predicted probability

Brandon Nakashima

USA

41.93%

Rafael Jodar

Spain

58.07%

Average Odds

2.94 / 1.41

Market probability

32.41% / 67.59%

Why This Prediction?

Rafael Jodar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1939 vs 1841), a stronger return game (45.5% vs 36.9% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1822 vs 1821).

Player Comparison

1841.3 Elo 1939.2

1820.9 Elo (surface) 1821.9

177 Wins 43

120 Wins (surface) 22

11 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.184 Dominance ratio 1.056

31 Rank 15

25.0 Age 19.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Rafael Jodar

1st Serve In %

59.0%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

74.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

56.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

37.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

57.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Rafael Jodar

Break Points Saved %

73.2%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

41.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

77.5%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima 0 – 0 Rafael Jodar

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-13

SF

Brandon Nakashima #31

Rafael Jodar #15

7-6 6-4

4 Aces 6

5 Double Faults 0

96 Service Points 77

57 First Serve In 48

39 First Serve Won 39

20 Second Serve Won 18

10 Break Points Saved 6

11 Break Points Faced 6

21 Winners 28

29 Unforced Errors 28

2.9 Average Odds 1.4

Brandon Nakashima vs Rafael Jodar — Prediction