ATP tennis predict — Brandon Nakashima vs Nuno Borges

ATP Hard Cincinnati · R16 00:35

Predicted probability

Brandon Nakashima

USA

60.13%

Nuno Borges

Portugal

39.87%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.42

Market probability

60.96% / 39.04%

Why This Prediction?

Brandon Nakashima is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1866 vs 1822), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1844 vs 1773) and a stronger serve (69.0% vs 67.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1865.5 Elo 1822.0

1844.1 Elo (surface) 1773.0

180 Wins 111

123 Wins (surface) 62

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.134 Dominance ratio 1.086

22 Rank 47

25.0 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Nuno Borges

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Nuno Borges

1st Serve In %

59.0%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%

78.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Nuno Borges

Break Points Saved %

73.2%

56.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

66.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima 0 – 0 Nuno Borges

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-20

R16

Brandon Nakashima #22

Nuno Borges #47

6-3 6-7 6-3

8 Aces 27

2 Double Faults 3

98 Service Points 105

59 First Serve In 61

43 First Serve Won 52

20 Second Serve Won 22

7 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 4

28 Winners 39

36 Unforced Errors 36

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Brandon Nakashima vs Nuno Borges — Prediction