ATP tennis predict — Brandon Nakashima vs Luciano Darderi

ATP Hard Montreal · QF 18:40

Predicted probability

Brandon Nakashima

USA

79.59%

Luciano Darderi

Italy

20.41%

Average Odds

1.38 / 3.06

Market probability

68.92% / 31.08%

Why This Prediction?

Brandon Nakashima is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1816 vs 1549), a higher Elo rating (1832 vs 1791) and a stronger serve (69.9% vs 60.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1831.7 Elo 1791.4

1816.5 Elo (surface) 1549.2

176 Wins 93

119 Wins (surface) 18

11 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.233 Dominance ratio 0.792

31 Rank 22

25.0 Age 24.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Luciano Darderi

1st Serve In %

59.0%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%

52.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

36.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

57.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Luciano Darderi

Break Points Saved %

73.2%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

71.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima 1 – 1 Luciano Darderi

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-11

QF

Brandon Nakashima #31

Luciano Darderi #22

6-2 6-3

2 Aces 11

6 Double Faults 1

54 Service Points 60

36 First Serve In 36

25 First Serve Won 30

5 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 4

11 Winners 26

28 Unforced Errors 16

1.4 Average Odds 3.1

Hard Vienna · 2025-10-20

R32

Brandon Nakashima #32

Luciano Darderi #26

6-2 7-5

7 Aces 10

0 Double Faults 5

54 Service Points 81

32 First Serve In 49

27 First Serve Won 34

13 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Hamburg · 2025-05-18

R16

Luciano Darderi #45

Brandon Nakashima #29

7-5 6-7(7) 6-2

6 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 2

104 Service Points 116

59 First Serve In 75

38 First Serve Won 44

22 Second Serve Won 16

3 Break Points Saved 9

8 Break Points Faced 17