ATP tennis predict — Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik

ATP Hard Washington · R16

Predicted probability

Brandon Nakashima

USA

48.05%

Jakub Mensik

Czech Republic

51.95%

Average Odds

2.26 / 1.63

Market probability

41.90% / 58.10%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1784.3 Elo 1868.4

1775.5 Elo (surface) 1694.5

171 Wins 100

114 Wins (surface) 73

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.065 Dominance ratio 1.015

33 Rank 17

25.0 Age 20.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jakub Mensik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Jakub Mensik

1st Serve In %

59.0%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

21.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

55.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%

57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Jakub Mensik

Break Points Saved %

73.2%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

54.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima 0 – 2 Jakub Mensik

Hard Washington · 2026-07-30

R16

Brandon Nakashima #33

Jakub Mensik #17

7-6 3-6 6-4

12 Aces 15

4 Double Faults 7

97 Service Points 97

62 First Serve In 55

49 First Serve Won 45

18 Second Serve Won 23

4 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 3

29 Winners 33

37 Unforced Errors 38

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Australian Open · 2024-01-15

Q1

Jakub Mensik #142

Brandon Nakashima #127

6-4 7-6(4)

6 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 0

60 Service Points 64

43 First Serve In 45

36 First Serve Won 32

13 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Canberra CH · 2024-01-01

SF

Jakub Mensik #167

Brandon Nakashima #134

7-5 7-5

13 Aces 3

7 Double Faults 3

88 Service Points 73

45 First Serve In 47

34 First Serve Won 33

22 Second Serve Won 13

7 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 4