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Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev — Prediction

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 3. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Brandon Nakashima

USA

49.54%

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

50.46%

Average Odds

2.11  /  1.73

Market probability

45.05%  /  54.95%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1852.9 Elo 1911.6
1828.2 Elo (surface) 1926.4
179 Wins 487
122 Wins (surface) 365
11 Last 15 form 10
0 Head-to-head wins 3
1.108 Dominance ratio 0.918
22 Rank 7
25.0 Age 30.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–4L · 50.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Daniil Medvedev

1st Serve In %

59.0%
61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%
72.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%
52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%
26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%
57.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.73
0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24
0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%
63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%
73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%
52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%
27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%
49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.62
0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14
0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Daniil Medvedev

Break Points Saved %

73.2%
54.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%
46.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%
77.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%
41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima 0 – 3 Daniil Medvedev

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-18

3. round

Brandon Nakashima #22

Daniil Medvedev #7

6-7 7-6 6-1
8 Aces 11
1 Double Faults 10
106 Service Points 115
59 First Serve In 73
47 First Serve Won 53
27 Second Serve Won 19
4 Break Points Saved 9
5 Break Points Faced 12
35 Winners 35
34 Unforced Errors 51
2.1 Average Odds 1.7
Hard Brisbane · 2026-01-04

F

Daniil Medvedev #13

Brandon Nakashima #33

6-2 7-6(1)
10 Aces 3
4 Double Faults 0
73 Service Points 53
51 First Serve In 33
36 First Serve Won 26
13 Second Serve Won 8
3 Break Points Saved 2
4 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Madrid Masters · 2025-04-23

R16

Daniil Medvedev #10

Brandon Nakashima #32

3-6 6-1 6-4
7 Aces 6
7 Double Faults 0
81 Service Points 80
49 First Serve In 60
38 First Serve Won 41
14 Second Serve Won 7
1 Break Points Saved 3
3 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2023-03-06

R64

Daniil Medvedev #6

Brandon Nakashima #48

6-4 6-3
6 Aces 7
2 Double Faults 1
56 Service Points 61
33 First Serve In 44
24 First Serve Won 29
16 Second Serve Won 5
6 Break Points Saved 4
6 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Brandon Nakashima — Last 10

L W L W W W W L W W

Daniil Medvedev — Last 10

L W W W L L W L L W