ATP tennis predict — Brandon Nakashima vs Alex Michelsen

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Brandon Nakashima

USA

53.02%

Alex Michelsen

USA

46.98%

Average Odds

1.48 / 2.64

Market probability

64.08% / 35.92%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1885.3 Elo 1847.9

1858.2 Elo (surface) 1822.9

183 Wins 101

126 Wins (surface) 73

12 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.065 Dominance ratio 1.123

17 Rank 46

25.1 Age 22.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Alex Michelsen

1st Serve In %

59.0%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%

75.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

27.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Alex Michelsen

Break Points Saved %

73.2%

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

56.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima 0 – 0 Alex Michelsen

Hard US Open · 2026-09-02

2. round

Alex Michelsen #46

Brandon Nakashima #17

6-3 6-4 6-4

10 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 4

81 Service Points 81

49 First Serve In 47

34 First Serve Won 39

17 Second Serve Won 22

3 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 3

19 Winners 15

26 Unforced Errors 21

2.6 Average Odds 1.5

Brandon Nakashima vs Alex Michelsen — Prediction