ATP tennis predict — Brandon Nakashima vs Aleksandar Kovacevic

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Brandon Nakashima

USA

69.86%

Aleksandar Kovacevic

USA

30.14%

Average Odds

1.26 / 3.86

Market probability

75.39% / 24.61%

Why This Prediction?

Brandon Nakashima is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1847 vs 1689), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1822 vs 1642) and a better head-to-head record against Aleksandar Kovacevic (1-0).

Player Comparison

1846.7 Elo 1688.8

1821.7 Elo (surface) 1641.9

178 Wins 81

121 Wins (surface) 61

11 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.079 Dominance ratio 1.142

31 Rank 95

25.0 Age 28.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Aleksandar Kovacevic

1st Serve In %

59.0%

55.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%

77.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

20.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

46.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%

61.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

72.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

27.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

47.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Brandon Nakashima Aleksandar Kovacevic

Break Points Saved %

73.2%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima 1 – 0 Aleksandar Kovacevic

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-16

2. round

Brandon Nakashima #22

Aleksandar Kovacevic #96

6-2 7-5

13 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 9

50 Service Points 67

27 First Serve In 33

22 First Serve Won 25

15 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 6

17 Winners 22

16 Unforced Errors 37

1.3 Average Odds 3.9

Hard Brisbane · 2026-01-04

SF

Brandon Nakashima #33

Aleksandar Kovacevic #58

7-6(4) 6-4

15 Aces 14

1 Double Faults 4

73 Service Points 77

51 First Serve In 49

38 First Serve Won 38

12 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Brandon Nakashima vs Aleksandar Kovacevic — Prediction