ATP tennis predict — Braden Shick vs Renta Tokuda

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Braden Shick

USA

69.10%

Renta Tokuda

Japan

30.90%

Average Odds

0.00 / 0.00

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Braden Shick is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1653 vs 1463) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1693 vs 1468).

Player Comparison

1653.4 Elo 1463.2

1693.3 Elo (surface) 1467.6

16 Wins (Challenger) 54

14 Wins (surface) 52

11 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.933 Dominance ratio 1.239

234 Rank 456

22.8 Age 28.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Braden Shick

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Renta Tokuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Braden Shick Renta Tokuda

1st Serve In %

55.7%

64.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.6%

60.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.7%

59.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

24.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.2%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

66.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.1%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.9%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.3%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Braden Shick Renta Tokuda

Break Points Saved %

62.1%

41.7%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

67.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

32.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Braden Shick 0 – 0 Renta Tokuda

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-28

qualification - round of 16

Braden Shick #234

Renta Tokuda #456

-

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

0 Average Odds 0

Braden Shick vs Renta Tokuda — Prediction