ATP tennis predict — Braden Shick vs Mees Rottgering

Challenger Hard Columbus 3 challenger · R16 16:00

Predicted probability

Braden Shick

USA

41.45%

Mees Rottgering

Netherlands

58.55%

Average Odds

2.08 / 1.64

Market probability

44.09% / 55.91%

Why This Prediction?

Mees Rottgering is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1758 vs 1715), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1721 vs 1705) and a stronger return game (36.5% vs 35.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1714.8 Elo 1758.3

1704.7 Elo (surface) 1720.7

21 Wins (Challenger) 12

19 Wins (surface) 9

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.845 Dominance ratio 0.834

207 Rank 335

22.9 Age 19.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Braden Shick

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Mees Rottgering

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Braden Shick Mees Rottgering

1st Serve In %

55.7%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.6%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.7%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.2%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

56.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.1%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

39.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.9%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.3%

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Braden Shick Mees Rottgering

Break Points Saved %

62.1%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Braden Shick and Mees Rottgering have never played each other.

Braden Shick vs Mees Rottgering — Prediction