ATP tennis predict — Braden Shick vs Erik Arutiunian

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Braden Shick

USA

61.99%

Erik Arutiunian

Belarus

38.01%

Average Odds

1.50 / 2.37

Market probability

61.24% / 38.76%

Why This Prediction?

Braden Shick is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1742 vs 1617), a higher Elo rating (1745 vs 1618) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1744.6 Elo 1618.0

1742.1 Elo (surface) 1617.0

19 Wins (Challenger) 18

17 Wins (surface) 18

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.845 Dominance ratio 1.098

206 Rank 600

22.9 Age 21.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Braden Shick

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Erik Arutiunian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Braden Shick Erik Arutiunian

1st Serve In %

55.7%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.6%

50.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.7%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.2%

58.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.1%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.9%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.3%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Braden Shick Erik Arutiunian

Break Points Saved %

62.1%

40.0%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

34.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Braden Shick 0 – 0 Erik Arutiunian

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Braden Shick #206

Erik Arutiunian #600

6-3 6-4

3 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

24 First Serve Won 23

15 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Braden Shick vs Erik Arutiunian — Prediction