ATP tennis predict — Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Alex Michelsen

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Netherlands

42.28%

Alex Michelsen

USA

57.72%

Average Odds

2.52 / 1.51

Market probability

37.47% / 62.53%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2007 vs 1925), a higher Elo rating (2023 vs 1958) and a stronger serve (65.7% vs 63.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1958.0 Elo 2023.5

1925.3 Elo (surface) 2006.6

179 Wins 104

122 Wins (surface) 76

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.140 Dominance ratio 1.123

41 Rank 35

31.0 Age 22.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Botic Van De Zandschulp Alex Michelsen

1st Serve In %

58.9%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.3%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.6%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.0%

52.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.5%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.6%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.0%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Botic Van De Zandschulp Alex Michelsen

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

65.9%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.1%

56.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Botic Van De Zandschulp and Alex Michelsen have never played each other.

Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Alex Michelsen — Prediction