ATP tennis predict — Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Alex De Minaur

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 22:30

Predicted probability

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Netherlands

25.06%

Alex De Minaur

Australia

74.94%

Average Odds

3.56 / 1.29

Market probability

26.60% / 73.40%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1865 vs 1711), a higher Elo rating (1897 vs 1770) and fewer double faults per game (0.14 vs 0.23).

Player Comparison

1770.3 Elo 1897.2

1711.5 Elo (surface) 1865.2

173 Wins 354

116 Wins (surface) 258

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 4

1.080 Dominance ratio 0.933

70 Rank 7

30.9 Age 27.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Botic Van De Zandschulp Alex De Minaur

1st Serve In %

58.1%

55.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.1%

45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

66.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.5%

58.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.6%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.0%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Botic Van De Zandschulp Alex De Minaur

Break Points Saved %

62.0%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

71.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.1%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Botic Van De Zandschulp 0 – 4 Alex De Minaur

Hard US Open · 2026-09-04

2. round

Botic Van De Zandschulp #70

Alex De Minaur #7

6-4 7-5 6-2

9 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 7

104 Service Points 96

60 First Serve In 49

46 First Serve Won 32

22 Second Serve Won 24

4 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 11

27 Winners 23

21 Unforced Errors 29

3.6 Average Odds 1.3

Hard Rotterdam · 2026-02-09

QF

Alex De Minaur #8

Botic Van De Zandschulp #65

3-6 7-6(4) 7-5

4 Aces 12

3 Double Faults 8

100 Service Points 119

67 First Serve In 69

50 First Serve Won 52

18 Second Serve Won 24

5 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Doha · 2025-02-17

R16

Alex De Minaur #8

Botic Van De Zandschulp #87

6-4 6-4

4 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 4

70 Service Points 75

34 First Serve In 36

25 First Serve Won 23

24 Second Serve Won 20

4 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2025-01-13

R128

Alex De Minaur #8

Botic Van De Zandschulp #84

6-1 7-5 6-4

13 Aces 5

4 Double Faults 7

93 Service Points 90

59 First Serve In 45

48 First Serve Won 29

17 Second Serve Won 21

4 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Davis Cup Finals QF: AUS vs NED · 2022-11-22

RR

Alex De Minaur #24

Botic Van De Zandschulp #35

5-7 6-3 6-4

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Alex De Minaur — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Botic Van De Zandschulp — Last 10

Alex De Minaur — Last 10