ATP tennis predict — Boris Arias vs Thiago Cigarran

Challenger Clay Santa Cruz De La Sierra challenger · qualification - 1. round 21:00

Predicted probability

Boris Arias

Bolivia

12.84%

Thiago Cigarran

Argentina

87.16%

Average Odds

1.03 / 1.03

Market probability

50.00% / 50.00%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Cigarran is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1471 vs 1285), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1483 vs 1323) and fewer double faults per game (0.18 vs 0.18).

Player Comparison

1284.7 Elo 1471.4

1322.8 Elo (surface) 1482.8

7 Wins (Challenger) 19

5 Wins (surface) 19

4 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.893 Dominance ratio 1.033

1294 Rank 622

32.9 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Boris Arias

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Thiago Cigarran

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Boris Arias Thiago Cigarran

1st Serve In %

62.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

81.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

65.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.80

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%

63.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.6%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.6%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Boris Arias Thiago Cigarran

Break Points Saved %

100.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.2%

53.0%

Break Points Converted %

54.5%

47.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Boris Arias and Thiago Cigarran have never played each other.

Boris Arias vs Thiago Cigarran — Prediction