ATP tennis predict — Boris Arias vs Ergi Kirkin

Challenger Hard Hamburg challenger · qualification - 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Boris Arias

Bolivia

11.57%

Ergi Kirkin

Turkey

88.43%

Average Odds

11.07 / 1.02

Market probability

8.44% / 91.56%

Why This Prediction?

Ergi Kirkin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1504 vs 1233), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1514 vs 1425) and more career match wins (93 vs 7).

Player Comparison

1233.1 Elo 1504.5

1425.5 Elo (surface) 1514.3

7 Wins (Challenger) 93

2 Wins (surface) 33

5 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.782 Dominance ratio 1.081

1234 Rank 608

32.8 Age 27.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Boris Arias

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Ergi Kirkin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Boris Arias Ergi Kirkin

1st Serve In %

62.3%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

81.8%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

65.0%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

24.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.4%

40.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.80

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.2%

53.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.7%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.6%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.4%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

45.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Boris Arias Ergi Kirkin

Break Points Saved %

100.0%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

46.0%

Break Points Converted %

54.9%

44.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Boris Arias 0 – 0 Ergi Kirkin

Hard Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-09

qualification - 1. round

Ergi Kirkin #608

Boris Arias #1234

6-2 6-2

0 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 0

48 Service Points 37

27 First Serve In 18

15 First Serve Won 15

6 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.0 Average Odds 11.1

Boris Arias vs Ergi Kirkin — Prediction