ATP tennis predict — Blake Ellis vs Ilia Simakin

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · R16 06:50

Predicted probability

Blake Ellis

Australia

22.88%

Ilia Simakin

Russia

77.12%

Average Odds

3.78 / 1.24

Market probability

24.70% / 75.30%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1823 vs 1585), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1861 vs 1587) and fewer double faults per game (0.06 vs 0.11).

Player Comparison

1584.8 Elo 1822.9

1587.1 Elo (surface) 1861.3

71 Wins (Challenger) 78

69 Wins (surface) 75

8 Last 15 form 14

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.074 Dominance ratio 1.071

462 Rank 177

27.7 Age 22.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Blake Ellis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Blake Ellis Ilia Simakin

1st Serve In %

56.3%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

42.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.76

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.4%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%

56.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

64.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.5%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.0%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.94

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Blake Ellis Ilia Simakin

Break Points Saved %

63.4%

85.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.8%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

31.8%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Blake Ellis 0 – 1 Ilia Simakin

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-17

R16

Ilia Simakin #177

Blake Ellis #462

6-4 6-2

5 Aces 13

3 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

21 First Serve Won 21

8 Second Serve Won 15

4 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.8

Hard Pune CH · 2025-02-17

R32

Ilia Simakin #308

Blake Ellis #303

6-4 6-2

11 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 2

48 Service Points 61

33 First Serve In 32

25 First Serve Won 21

10 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Blake Ellis vs Ilia Simakin — Prediction