ATP tennis predict — Blake Ellis vs Hiroki Moriya

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 1. round 09:50

Predicted probability

Blake Ellis

Australia

63.06%

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

36.94%

Average Odds

2.01 / 1.73

Market probability

46.26% / 53.74%

Why This Prediction?

Blake Ellis is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1574 vs 1505), a stronger serve (67.3% vs 62.3% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1571 vs 1525).

Player Comparison

1570.7 Elo 1525.5

1573.9 Elo (surface) 1505.2

70 Wins (Challenger) 309

68 Wins (surface) 277

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.074 Dominance ratio 1.100

462 Rank 501

27.7 Age 35.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Blake Ellis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Hiroki Moriya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Blake Ellis Hiroki Moriya

1st Serve In %

56.3%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.76

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.4%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.5%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.0%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.94

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Blake Ellis Hiroki Moriya

Break Points Saved %

63.4%

66.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.8%

58.7%

Break Points Converted %

31.8%

38.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Blake Ellis 0 – 0 Hiroki Moriya

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-16

1. round

Blake Ellis #462

Hiroki Moriya #501

6-4 5-7 6-3

16 Aces 8

2 Double Faults 5

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

48 First Serve Won 41

22 Second Serve Won 23

5 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Blake Ellis vs Hiroki Moriya — Prediction