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Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva — Prediction

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · 1. round 18:00

Predicted probability

Average Odds

4.34  /  1.17

Market probability

21.23%  /  78.77%

Why This Prediction?

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1669 vs 1544), more wins on clay courts (126 vs 2) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1683 vs 1625).

Player Comparison

1543.7 Elo 1669.1
1625.4 Elo (surface) 1682.7
3 Wins (Challenger) 134
2 Wins (surface) 126
3 Last 15 form 7
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.011 Dominance ratio 0.886
1203 Rank 230
20.6 Age 26.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernardo Munk Mesa

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–7L · 22.2%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernardo Munk Mesa Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

1st Serve In %

—
62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—
63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—
44.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—
22.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—
48.7%

Aces per Service Game

—
0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

—
0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.0%
61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%
59.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%
48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%
32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%
56.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.15
0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20
0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernardo Munk Mesa Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Break Points Saved %

—
48.3%

Break Points Converted %

—
31.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

44.4%
66.7%

Break Points Converted %

30.8%
57.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernardo Munk Mesa and Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva have never played each other.

Bernardo Munk Mesa — Last 5

W W L L W

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva — Last 10

L W L W W W W L L L