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Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Bruno Fernandez — Prediction

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · qualification - 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Bruno Fernandez

Brazil

78.07%

Average Odds

2.05  /  1.58

Market probability

43.53%  /  56.47%

Why This Prediction?

Bruno Fernandez is the favorite because he has better recent form (5 wins in his last 15 matches vs 1), more wins on clay courts (15 vs 0) and more career match wins (15 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1417.5 Elo 1415.0
1500 Elo (surface) 1422.8
1 Wins (Challenger) 15
0 Wins (surface) 15
1 Last 15 form 5
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.011 Dominance ratio 1.166
1190 Rank 597
20.6 Age 22.2
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernardo Munk Mesa

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Bruno Fernandez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernardo Munk Mesa Bruno Fernandez

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

68.0%
66.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%
71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%
57.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%
30.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%
57.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.21
0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21
0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernardo Munk Mesa Bruno Fernandez

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

44.4%
64.9%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%
54.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernardo Munk Mesa and Bruno Fernandez have never played each other.

Bernardo Munk Mesa — Last 3

L L W

Bruno Fernandez — Last 10

L W L W L L W L L L