ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Spencer Johnson

Challenger Hard Lincoln challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

57.12%

Spencer Johnson

USA

42.88%

Average Odds

2.30 / 1.57

Market probability

40.57% / 59.43%

Why This Prediction?

Bernard Tomic is the favorite because he has more wins on hard courts (164 vs 0), better recent form (7 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0) and a stronger serve (63.3% vs 63.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1669.8 Elo 1657.0

1641.6 Elo (surface) 1668.3

149 Wins (Challenger) 8

116 Wins (surface) 8

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.987 Dominance ratio 0.969

206 Rank 682

33.7 Age 23.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Spencer Johnson

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Spencer Johnson

1st Serve In %

57.2%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

51.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.59

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

52.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.83

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Spencer Johnson

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

44.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.5%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic 0 – 0 Spencer Johnson

Hard Lincoln challenger · 2026-07-19

SF

Bernard Tomic #170

Spencer Johnson #524

6-7 6-3 6-2

7 Aces 17

2 Double Faults 4

86 Service Points 96

57 First Serve In 58

42 First Serve Won 45

25 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 7

1 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Bernard Tomic vs Spencer Johnson — Prediction