ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Miguel Tobon

ATP Hard Los Cabos · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

73.15%

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

26.85%

Average Odds

1.35 / 3.06

Market probability

69.39% / 30.61%

Why This Prediction?

Bernard Tomic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1679 vs 1462), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1650 vs 1441) and more wins on hard courts (164 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1679.4 Elo 1462.4

1650.0 Elo (surface) 1440.7

251 Wins 21

164 Wins (surface) 3

7 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.813 Dominance ratio 1.010

170 Rank -

33.8 Age 20.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Miguel Tobon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Miguel Tobon

1st Serve In %

57.2%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.83

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Miguel Tobon

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

44.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.5%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic 0 – 0 Miguel Tobon

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-26

qualification - round of 16

Bernard Tomic #247

Miguel Tobon #-

5-7 6-4 7-6

5 Aces 8

5 Double Faults 8

110 Service Points 107

65 First Serve In 56

47 First Serve Won 43

20 Second Serve Won 24

6 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 3.1

Bernard Tomic vs Miguel Tobon — Prediction