ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Mattia Bellucci

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · QF 10:25

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

20.10%

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

79.90%

Average Odds

3.25 / 1.22

Market probability

27.29% / 72.71%

Why This Prediction?

Mattia Bellucci is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1889 vs 1701), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1830 vs 1678) and a stronger serve (63.4% vs 57.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1700.8 Elo 1889.4

1678.1 Elo (surface) 1830.3

158 Wins (Challenger) 98

125 Wins (surface) 72

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.942 Dominance ratio 1.193

184 Rank 91

34.0 Age 25.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–4L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

36 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Mattia Bellucci

1st Serve In %

57.2%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

42.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.9%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.5%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

34.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%

47.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.90

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Mattia Bellucci

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

27.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.8%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

38.9%

43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic and Mattia Bellucci have never played each other.

Bernard Tomic vs Mattia Bellucci — Prediction