ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Matthew Forbes

Challenger Hard Lincoln challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

61.46%

Matthew Forbes

USA

38.54%

Average Odds

1.47 / 2.57

Market probability

63.61% / 36.39%

Why This Prediction?

Bernard Tomic is the favorite because he has more career match wins (148 vs 4), a higher Elo rating (1662 vs 1607) and fewer double faults per game (0.10 vs 0.24).

Player Comparison

1662.4 Elo 1606.8

1632.1 Elo (surface) 1606.5

148 Wins (Challenger) 4

115 Wins (surface) 4

8 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.043 Dominance ratio 1.034

206 Rank 939

33.7 Age 20.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Matthew Forbes

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Matthew Forbes

1st Serve In %

57.2%

65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

61.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

38.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

23.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.47

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.83

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Matthew Forbes

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

18.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.5%

61.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic 0 – 0 Matthew Forbes

Hard Lincoln challenger · 2026-07-18

QF

Bernard Tomic #206

Matthew Forbes #939

7-6 6-3

2 Aces 2

6 Double Faults 1

57 Service Points 65

34 First Serve In 49

27 First Serve Won 39

12 Second Serve Won 11

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Bernard Tomic vs Matthew Forbes — Prediction