ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

22.45%

Matteo Arnaldi

Italy

77.55%

Average Odds

2.69 / 1.45

Market probability

35.02% / 64.98%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Arnaldi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1894 vs 1725), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1766 vs 1703) and a stronger return game (40.6% vs 29.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1724.6 Elo 1894.1

1703.3 Elo (surface) 1766.2

257 Wins 102

170 Wins (surface) 58

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.693 Dominance ratio 1.189

185 Rank 38

34.0 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–4L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–9L · 35.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

40 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Matteo Arnaldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Matteo Arnaldi

1st Serve In %

59.1%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

75.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.7%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.2%

25.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.1%

56.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.2%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.7%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.2%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.79

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Matteo Arnaldi

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

61.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.9%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic and Matteo Arnaldi have never played each other.

Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi — Prediction