ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Mark Lajal

Challenger Hard Lincoln challenger · F

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

35.97%

Mark Lajal

Estonia

64.03%

Average Odds

2.55 / 1.47

Market probability

36.57% / 63.43%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1708 vs 1653), a higher Elo rating (1682 vs 1678) and a stronger return game (39.8% vs 36.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1678.2 Elo 1682.1

1652.6 Elo (surface) 1708.1

150 Wins (Challenger) 127

117 Wins (surface) 113

8 Last 15 form 10

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.040 Dominance ratio 1.191

170 Rank 150

33.7 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Mark Lajal

1st Serve In %

57.2%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

54.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

61.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

57.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.83

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Mark Lajal

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.5%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic 2 – 0 Mark Lajal

Hard Lincoln challenger · 2026-07-20

F

Bernard Tomic #170

Mark Lajal #150

4-6 7-6 7-6

9 Aces 11

1 Double Faults 2

123 Service Points 109

87 First Serve In 63

66 First Serve Won 52

17 Second Serve Won 26

8 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Morelia CH · 2025-03-24

R16

Bernard Tomic #219

Mark Lajal #205

6-2 3-6 7-6(6)

1 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 5

86 Service Points 96

57 First Serve In 62

43 First Serve Won 42

18 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Tiburon CH · 2023-10-02

R16

Bernard Tomic #295

Mark Lajal #237

7-6(1) 6-3

11 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 3

68 Service Points 61

40 First Serve In 33

32 First Serve Won 26

19 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 0

2 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Bernard Tomic vs Mark Lajal — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic — Last 10

Mark Lajal — Last 10