ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

37.33%

Lloyd Harris

RSA

62.67%

Average Odds

3.00 / 1.37

Market probability

31.35% / 68.65%

Why This Prediction?

Lloyd Harris is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1734 vs 1657), a stronger serve (71.0% vs 57.3% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1723 vs 1683).

Player Comparison

1683.1 Elo 1722.6

1656.6 Elo (surface) 1733.9

254 Wins 132

167 Wins (surface) 100

8 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.708 Dominance ratio 1.300

179 Rank 139

33.8 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Lloyd Harris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 13W–3L · 81.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Lloyd Harris

1st Serve In %

57.2%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

57.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.83

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

24.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.83

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Lloyd Harris

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.5%

64.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

35.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic 1 – 0 Lloyd Harris

Hard US Open · 2026-08-25

qualification - 1. round

Lloyd Harris #139

Bernard Tomic #179

6-2 5-7 6-2

0 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 2

69 Service Points 78

43 First Serve In 47

29 First Serve Won 36

14 Second Serve Won 17

0 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 5

20 Winners 29

37 Unforced Errors 27

1.4 Average Odds 3

Hard Chengdu · 2018-09-24

R16

Bernard Tomic #123

Lloyd Harris #129

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(6)

10 Aces 23

1 Double Faults 3

110 Service Points 117

77 First Serve In 63

58 First Serve Won 49

16 Second Serve Won 30

8 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris — Prediction