ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Karen Khachanov

ATP Hard Los Cabos · R16

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

31.73%

Karen Khachanov

Russia

68.27%

Average Odds

3.48 / 1.30

Market probability

27.20% / 72.80%

Why This Prediction?

Karen Khachanov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1811 vs 1649), a higher Elo rating (1806 vs 1680) and a stronger return game (38.9% vs 29.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1680.1 Elo 1806.0

1648.7 Elo (surface) 1811.4

253 Wins 342

166 Wins (surface) 217

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.748 Dominance ratio 1.177

171 Rank 26

33.8 Age 30.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Karen Khachanov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Karen Khachanov

1st Serve In %

57.2%

57.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

22.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.83

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Karen Khachanov

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

64.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.5%

68.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

33.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic 0 – 0 Karen Khachanov

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-30

R16

Bernard Tomic #171

Karen Khachanov #26

6-2 6-4

5 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 6

58 Service Points 60

30 First Serve In 21

23 First Serve Won 13

13 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 8

19 Winners 12

33 Unforced Errors 29

3.5 Average Odds 1.3

Bernard Tomic vs Karen Khachanov — Prediction