ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

ATP Hard Los Cabos · 1. round

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

70.05%

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Mexico

29.95%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.42

Market probability

60.80% / 39.20%

Why This Prediction?

Bernard Tomic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1676 vs 1471), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1641 vs 1551) and a stronger serve (65.3% vs 54.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1676.0 Elo 1471.2

1641.0 Elo (surface) 1551.2

252 Wins 4

165 Wins (surface) 4

7 Last 15 form 4

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.789 Dominance ratio 0.743

171 Rank 498

33.8 Age 27.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

1st Serve In %

57.2%

64.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

64.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

24.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

58.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

65.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

42.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.83

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.5%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic 1 – 0 Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-28

1. round

Bernard Tomic #171

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #498

6-1 6-0

1 Aces 13

3 Double Faults 2

49 Service Points 34

34 First Serve In 27

18 First Serve Won 24

3 Second Serve Won 4

2 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 0

5 Winners 28

18 Unforced Errors 18

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Clay Mexico City CH · 2025-04-07

R16

Bernard Tomic #236

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #533

6-4 6-2

4 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 2

63 Service Points 60

36 First Serve In 39

29 First Serve Won 25

14 Second Serve Won 9

4 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Bernard Tomic vs Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano — Prediction