ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Ilya Ivashka

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · R16 09:00

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

44.64%

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

55.36%

Average Odds

2.17 / 1.64

Market probability

43.04% / 56.96%

Why This Prediction?

Ilya Ivashka is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (59.3% vs 57.2% of service points won), a stronger return game (36.4% vs 29.7% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1716 vs 1678).

Player Comparison

1705.5 Elo 1732.7

1677.9 Elo (surface) 1716.3

154 Wins (Challenger) 134

121 Wins (surface) 118

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.942 Dominance ratio 1.044

179 Rank 393

33.9 Age 32.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Ilya Ivashka

1st Serve In %

57.2%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.83

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Ilya Ivashka

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.5%

51.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic 0 – 1 Ilya Ivashka

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Ilya Ivashka #393

Bernard Tomic #179

6-4 4-6 6-2

1 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

47 First Serve Won 39

14 Second Serve Won 17

8 Break Points Saved 6

12 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Grass Newport · 2019-07-15

R32

Ilya Ivashka #141

Bernard Tomic #103

6-2 7-6(5)

7 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 0

65 Service Points 67

40 First Serve In 45

36 First Serve Won 32

11 Second Serve Won 8

3 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Bernard Tomic vs Ilya Ivashka — Prediction