ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Fajing Sun

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · 1. round 05:00

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

47.00%

Fajing Sun

China

53.00%

Average Odds

1.49 / 2.43

Market probability

61.99% / 38.01%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1693.8 Elo 1625.1

1669.2 Elo (surface) 1629.4

157 Wins (Challenger) 82

124 Wins (surface) 81

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.942 Dominance ratio 1.079

184 Rank 299

33.9 Age 30.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Fajing Sun

1st Serve In %

57.2%

56.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

21.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

67.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

58.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.83

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Fajing Sun

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.5%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic 0 – 1 Fajing Sun

Hard Hangzhou · 2026-09-23

qualification - quarterfinal

Fajing Sun #314

Bernard Tomic #182

6-4 7-5

7 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

33 First Serve Won 28

15 Second Serve Won 12

8 Break Points Saved 2

12 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.5

Bernard Tomic vs Fajing Sun — Prediction