ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Alexandr Binda

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · QF 13:00

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

58.41%

Alexandr Binda

Italy

41.59%

Average Odds

1.15 / 5.08

Market probability

81.54% / 18.46%

Why This Prediction?

Bernard Tomic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1679 vs 1564), a higher Elo rating (1705 vs 1571) and more wins on hard courts (167 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1704.7 Elo 1570.6

1678.6 Elo (surface) 1563.7

156 Wins (Challenger) 31

123 Wins (surface) 28

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.942 Dominance ratio 1.186

185 Rank 548

33.9 Age 25.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alexandr Binda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Alexandr Binda

1st Serve In %

57.2%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.54

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

67.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

77.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

42.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

55.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.83

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Alexandr Binda

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

—

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.5%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

40.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic 0 – 0 Alexandr Binda

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-18

QF

Bernard Tomic #185

Alexandr Binda #548

6-3 6-4

12 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

35 First Serve Won 27

9 Second Serve Won 9

2 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.1

Bernard Tomic vs Alexandr Binda — Prediction