ATP tennis predict — Bernard Tomic vs Akira Santillan

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · 1. round 09:00

Predicted probability

Bernard Tomic

Australia

64.79%

Akira Santillan

Australia

35.21%

Average Odds

1.32 / 3.23

Market probability

70.99% / 29.01%

Why This Prediction?

Bernard Tomic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1669 vs 1540), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1643 vs 1552) and more wins on hard courts (167 vs 10).

Player Comparison

1668.5 Elo 1540.4

1642.9 Elo (surface) 1551.9

153 Wins (Challenger) 162

120 Wins (surface) 114

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.951 Dominance ratio 1.063

179 Rank 331

33.9 Age 29.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Akira Santillan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–8L · 27.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Akira Santillan

1st Serve In %

57.2%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.83

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Bernard Tomic Akira Santillan

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.5%

52.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Bernard Tomic 0 – 1 Akira Santillan

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Bernard Tomic #179

Akira Santillan #331

6-4 6-4

3 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 0

65 Service Points 62

39 First Serve In 37

28 First Serve Won 24

12 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Hard Nonthaburi 3 CH · 2024-01-15

Q2

Akira Santillan #392

Bernard Tomic #290

6-3 7-6(4)

10 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 1

66 Service Points 70

44 First Serve In 48

35 First Serve Won 33

10 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Bernard Tomic vs Akira Santillan — Prediction